China’s recent decision to impose export restrictions is reshaping the global fertiliser supply landscape. These restrictions are particularly impacting the availability of di-ammonium phosphate (DAP), a critical input for agricultural productivity. The move aligns with China’s focus on securing its domestic agricultural needs while meeting growing internal demand for phosphate-based materials used in electric vehicle batteries.
Global Fertiliser Supply Challenges in India
India, heavily dependent on DAP imports, is experiencing significant shortfalls. As the 2025 kharif planting season begins, the country’s opening DAP stock is just 12.4 lakh tonnes—markedly lower than in previous years. China, once a major supplier, has drastically reduced its exports: from 22.9 lakh tonnes in 2023–24 to merely 8.4 lakh tonnes in 2024–25, with no shipments recorded so far in 2025. This drop is straining India’s fertiliser supply chain at a critical time.
Rising Costs and Market Shifts
The global tightening of phosphate availability is pushing up prices. For instance, recent shipments from Jordan have landed at $781.5 per tonne, a steep rise from last year’s $515–525. Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is quoting rates exceeding $810 per tonne. Compounding the situation, the price of phosphoric acid—an essential raw material for DAP—has also surged, indicating broader pressures on the fertiliser supply system.
Changing Patterns in Fertiliser Use
With DAP becoming more expensive and less accessible, its consumption in India has dropped from 108.1 lakh tonnes in 2023–24 to 92.8 lakh tonnes in 2024–25. Experts believe this may prompt a positive shift toward balanced fertilisation. Many crops may not require high-analysis fertilisers like DAP, making room for smarter nutrient management.
Growth of Alternatives in Fertiliser Supply
In response to falling DAP availability, farmers are increasingly turning to alternative fertilisers. Sales of NPKS complexes have jumped by 28.4%, reaching 142.1 lakh tonnes in 2024–25. Another notable alternative, ammonium phosphate sulphate (APS), is gaining traction due to its balanced nutrient content. This evolving preference indicates a transformation in how farmers manage their fertiliser supply needs.
Policy Impact and Farmer Adaptation
While the Government of India has capped the retail price of DAP, ground-level reports suggest farmers often face higher prices. To cope with the shortage, there’s been a rise in the use of single super phosphate and NPKS blends. Farmers are adjusting fertiliser application practices, leading to potentially more efficient nutrient usage and reduced dependency on any single input.
The Road Ahead for India’s Fertiliser Security
The ongoing crisis underlines the vulnerability of India’s current fertiliser supply framework, particularly its reliance on imported DAP. A strategic overhaul is essential—one that reduces dependence on imports, enhances domestic production, and encourages the use of alternative fertilisers. This situation presents a critical opportunity to realign national policy with long-term agricultural sustainability and economic resilience.
